Recently, Academician Yang Yusheng of the Chinese Academy of Sciences discussed the chaotic development of China's electric vehicle industry at a conference. Academician Yang Yusheng is a leading figure in the field of domestic battery research and a pioneer in China's high-energy secondary battery - lithium sulfur battery. In 2007, Academician Yang Yusheng developed a high-energy lithium sulfur secondary battery with a capacity of 300Wh/kg for the first time in China, which is much higher than the existing lithium-ion batteries (100Wh/kg). Academician Yang Yusheng believes that there are problems with the subsidy and price accounting of electric vehicles, which involve many interests and lead to the lack of requirements for enterprises under the existing high subsidy system. This results in many car manufacturers spending a lot of money to produce a product without a market, and the practical performance of this product is still problematic, which has not truly promoted the growth of the industry.

Academician Yang Yusheng believes that the current level of batteries determines the development direction of the electric vehicle industry during the 13th Five Year Plan period, rather than pursuing the unattainable so-called high-quality electric vehicles beyond the current level of batteries. Electric vehicles should develop along with the level of batteries. However, under the existing subsidy system, it not only leads to many companies that do not have the research and development capabilities for electric vehicles forcibly entering the market for subsidies, but also results in insufficient market driving ability, which is not conducive to technological innovation, and also causes artificial unfairness in society. Therefore, Academician Yang Yusheng summarized five lessons learned from the development of China's electric vehicle industry and put forward three suggestions:

Five lessons learned:

1、 The development path is wavering and uncertain;

2、 Not taking battery level as the basis for formulating the development route of electric vehicles;

3、 It is a high subsidy without any requirements. The subsidies for enterprises are very high but there are no requirements. You are willing to do whatever you want, so it has not played a role in the marketization of electric vehicles;

4、 Separated from the reality of significant urban-rural disparities. Focus on electric vehicles in big cities and repeatedly suppress small and low-speed electric vehicles;

5、 Confused the technological research stage or industrialization stage of electric vehicles.

Three suggestions:

1、 The State Council will set a limit on the total amount of subsidies for electric vehicles during the 13th Five Year Plan period. The amount of subsidies must be calculated first before use, and the four ministries and commissions cannot be allowed to calculate first;

2、 Clarify the responsibilities of each automobile manufacturing enterprise, implement appropriate subsidies, responsibility indicators, reward for exceeding targets, and promote production through penalties;

3、 Provide appropriate subsidies and continue to strengthen support for the innovation and development of electric vehicle technology.

Here is the full text:

Comrades, I have been conducting nuclear tests in Xinjiang for 27 and a half years, so I am an expert in nuclear testing. Later, as I was almost sixty years old, I was asked to return to Beijing and was elected as an academician. I was not allowed to retire, so I started working on batteries. After working in the field of electromagnetics for more than ten years, I came into contact with electric vehicles. Therefore, I considered the development of electric vehicles from an electromagnetic perspective, and only then did I begin to understand what electric vehicles are all about.

In more than a decade of contact, I have increasingly realized the importance and difficulty of electric vehicles. I have paid close attention to some of the development routes and policies related to electric vehicles in our country, and have expressed some opinions. Some opinions have also received support from some comrades, while a few people do not agree with my views. I think this is very natural. However, practice is the only criterion for testing truth, and over the years, I feel that some of my viewpoints still hold up to scrutiny. I have been concerned about the issue of subsidy policies for about six or seven years, around the time of the Shanghai World Expo. Two years before the World Expo, a 12M pure electric bus was sold for 1.6 million yuan in Shanghai. Less than a year later, it was sold for 1.9 million yuan in Shanghai. At the beginning of the year of the World Expo, in Shanghai, it was 2.2 million yuan, and three months before the opening of the World Expo, it sold for 2.6 million yuan.

Since then, I have felt that there are too many issues with subsidies and prices for electric vehicles. Because a 12M bus requires about two tons of batteries, based on the price at the time, the entire battery may cost around 800000 yuan. So why is it suddenly mentioned as 2.6 million, while an ordinary bus costs around 500000, of which the state subsidizes 500000, the local government subsidizes another 500000, and a total of 1 million is added. Why do I need to pay so much attention to it? Since then, I have been paying attention to this issue. So I have been calling for why a 12M pure electric bus should be sold for 2.6 million, and I have said this in many meetings, which has probably touched the interests of some people. But I always believe that there is a problem with this subsidy. But I have to say something today, we have many officials and comrades who have had a great discussion with everyone.

But when I attend meetings on many occasions, I often encounter situations where these officials are invited to release policies, they are asked to speak first, and then they leave. Then, if you say anything later, he doesn't listen at all, he doesn't want to listen, and he can't hear either. So I posted some articles and made some statements, but they didn't work. Later on, I gradually realized that it's not just about this, because now there are many officials, especially in the four central ministries, who consider themselves experts. They are even more experts than you, and they consider problems more deeply and comprehensively. As a layman like you, why should I listen to what you say? So throughout these years, I have always felt that a lot has been said about policy issues. You can flip through or click on Yang Yusheng or Academician Yang Yusheng, there are many reports.

But although the effect is not good, I think we still need to talk, so Professor Gu invited me to attend the meeting this time, and I said I would participate. Let's discuss together how electric vehicles in our country should be developed. So today when I talk about "Reforming Subsidy Policies and Developing Electric Vehicles", I actually feel that our country's subsidy policies must be changed. Below, I would like to discuss three issues. The first is a 15 year review of electric vehicles, the second is how to change the subsidy policy for electric vehicles, and the third is to make good use of mature batteries and develop market-oriented electric vehicles during the 13th Five Year Plan period. These are the three questions I want to talk about.

1、 A Review of 15 Years of Electric Vehicles

Firstly, my overall evaluation of the development of electric vehicles in our country over the past fifteen years is mixed.

The so-called joy lies in the significant progress made in key technologies, which has initially established the industrial foundation for key components and vehicles. By the end of 2015, China's cumulative sales of new energy electric vehicles may reach over 400000 units. Now everyone is talking about 49. 70000 vehicles, I have doubts about this number, and I think Director Yan may agree with my viewpoint. Because the number of registered vehicles does not match the quantity sold, there is a gap of 70000 vehicles in the first ten months of this year. In fact, there are many imaginary numbers involved in the later fraudulent subsidies, so I say we cannot always talk about this thing with relish. But at least our electric vehicles are developing rapidly and we have tried many operating modes, but we should also see the problems that exist, so I say mixed feelings. Someone disagrees with my half split evaluation, but I don't think that's the main issue. The first problem is that the cost of tens of billions of central subsidies, combined with a considerable amount of local government subsidies, is not effective in promoting the formation of the electric vehicle market.

The second reason is that many pure electric buses have declined before they age. They could have traveled 150 or 200 kilometers, but soon turned into 80 or 50 kilometers, and some simply couldn't walk anymore, so this 49. Out of 70000 vehicles, how many will decline in the future and how many will be stuck? I think it's worth counting, and this phenomenon is spreading. I think the problem of this spread is due to the sudden increase last year, which sold out all the unqualified batteries stored in the warehouse for many years. Selling this batch of batteries not only has a short lifespan, but also poses a great danger. So the problem of 'lying down' and premature aging will continue to spread, and the second set of batteries is not installed. The third issue is that many people, after obtaining preferential policies, use plug-in cars as fuel vehicles and sell their batteries, so this is also a form of fraudulent compensation. The fourth issue is that hundreds of inherently deficient fuel cell electric vehicles in Beijing and Shanghai are currently in hibernation, some of which have been retrofitted with lithium-ion batteries, which actually lowers their value because the subsidized prices are different.

Secondly, the experience and lessons learned from the development of electric vehicles over the past fifteen years.

I have a lengthy article specifically addressing this issue, and here I would like to briefly outline it. The first lesson learned is that the development path is wavering and uncertain. In general, the three five-year plans for the next 15 years have changed their focus to three different areas. During the 15th Five Year Plan period, fuel cell electric vehicles were prioritized as the first priority. At that time, following President Bush of the United States, Bush believed that this was the ultimate light energy source. In the 11th Five Year Plan period, hybrid electric vehicles became a key supported type of vehicle. Some companies collaborated with Japanese companies to promote Japanese technology and even bought Japanese products to assemble. At that time, the Prius was relatively mature, but after discovering these signs, many of us opposed hybrid electric vehicles because they were actually following the Japanese. Japan had patents, and Toyota had over a hundred patents at that time, which tightly sealed this hybrid vehicle. Additionally, our country's level of mechanical and electrical processing made it difficult to produce this core component, the new gear. So I feel that we should focus on developing our own electric vehicles for our country. So in the 12th Five Year Plan, pure electric vehicles will be the focus. Because the focus of these three five-year plans is wavering. The second lesson learned is that the battery level was not used as the basis for formulating the development route of electric vehicles. I have also seen this issue. Just now, when we talked about Prius, he has sold 8 million vehicles and uses nickel hydrogen batteries with a specific energy of 50 watts per kilogram. However, because he has core technology, emerging gears, and an important technology is electronic control, he has done a very good job in control.

So through these two technologies, the power of fuel and electric power have been perfectly combined. So this car can save fuel up to 35% to 40%, so it's not about the amount of battery. With this nickel hydrogen battery, we can make good use of it and fully utilize the battery's function, but our country doesn't have it. So here, I mainly talk about the comrades who work in the automotive industry. However, at that time, lithium-ion batteries reached 80 to 90 watts per kilogram, which was nearly twice as high as nickel hydrogen batteries. Without using this battery properly, they chose to use pure electric vehicles. Using such batteries to use pure electric vehicles will definitely encounter a series of problems in the end. So the lack of battery level as the basis for formulating the development route of electric vehicles is actually a departure from our most fundamental design at present. The third one is high subsidies without any requirements. The subsidies for enterprises are very high but there are no requirements. You are willing to do whatever you want, so it has not played a role in the marketization of electric vehicles. If the subsidy policy is not clear now, the car will not be traded immediately. The car factory does not accept orders now. This is not the latest time, it has happened twice before, and this is the third time. It is very bad to not decide how to do it based on the market, subsidies, and policies.

The fourth issue is that it deviates from the reality of significant urban-rural disparities. Focusing on electric vehicles in big cities and repeatedly suppressing small and low-speed electric vehicles is a great lesson for us. The fifth one confuses the technology research stage or industrialization stage of electric vehicles. Research and industrialization are two related stages, but there is a difference between them. They are two different stages. Our Ministry of Science and Technology talked about the Three Verticals and Three Horizontals, and the Three Verticals just mentioned three five-year plans with three different focuses. Let me give you an illustrative example. It's like playing a Rubik's Cube, where the Three Verticals keep spinning around. In fact, it can spin quite well, but the Ministry of Science and Technology is very active in industrialization. In fact, the Ministry of Science and Technology actively participates in industrialization, and he took the Three Verticals in the research stage into industrialization, which led to chaos. The sixth lesson is that we are not enthusiastic about new things, slow to respond, and our management level cannot keep up with the objective situation. Our corresponding policy measures are not matched. Micro cars have developed so rapidly in several provinces without corresponding policy supporting regulations. Such micro cars do not require license plates or drivers to take traffic rules exams. In this case, some car accidents have occurred, and those who are hit by people end up being attributed to the safety of low-speed electric vehicles. This statement does not make sense in theory. The higher the speed, the safer it is, and the lower the speed, the safer it is.

But in reality, it seems that the management has not kept up, so let's take a look at the consequences of implementing the world's highest subsidy. One of the consequences is that the pure electric buses that receive the highest subsidies from automobile manufacturers are guaranteed to be profitable, with high subsidies for battery installations and ultimately low safety. Just now, the host spoke on behalf of the automotive industry, saying that pursuing profits is their nature. I think this statement is correct or incorrect. A gentleman loves to make money in a proper way, and only by making money in a proper way can it be understandable. Is it a gentleman to exploit policy loopholes? Or rather, entrepreneurs are not gentlemen in the first place, and this statement cannot be made in such a way as to strike a big blow. But there are no requirements for enterprises in the policy, which is a major loophole in the high subsidy policy. The second consequence is that automobile manufacturers only want profits without obligations, and do not want to reduce costs to create a market. Instead, they intentionally raise car prices, without considering the transition of electric vehicles to a non subsidy direction. They have high subsidies to support their bottom line. I once mentioned in a report that they are lying there eating meat, and they are eating fat meat. Why do they have to worry so much? Therefore, they cannot do without obligations. Rights and obligations must complement each other. The third consequence is that most of the subsidies have become excess profits for automobile companies, and ordinary taxpayers' money has supplied a small number of people, artificially causing social injustice.

We know Yutong is very famous. Last year, he received a subsidy of 6.8565 billion yuan and a shareholder dividend of 3.22 billion yuan, which is unparalleled in our automotive industry. In recent years, I have conducted statistics on the profits of the automotive industry, ranging from a low profit margin of 2% to a high of 5%. When it comes to 8%, it is already unbelievable. This is the subsidy subsidy, which puts all the taxes paid by everyone present into the pockets of these shareholders. Although I am already 85 years old and no longer pay taxes, I feel sorry for everyone. The fourth consequence is that the government's financial burden is too heavy, and the effect of driving the development of electric vehicles is not good, even delaying the speed of development. The fifth consequence is the abundance of strange things. A 6M electric minibus is only sold for one yuan per vehicle, and a one yuan invoice is enough to receive a subsidy. A 12M bus is sold for over 2 million yuan because more batteries can be added for extra compensation. Purchase plug-in hybrid electric vehicles for use as fuel vehicles; Another issue is the fraud scandal. The occurrence of these strange things is inherently related to high subsidies and directly related to imperfect subsidy policies. This is the first question I want to talk about.

2、 How to reform the subsidy policy for electric vehicles

Last year, the four ministries and commissions officially announced this policy. Three months before the official announcement, a draft for soliciting opinions was published online. After reading it, I gave them my opinions. According to this subsidy policy, the 13th Five Year Plan will subsidize 480 billion yuan. After the policy came out, I estimated it would be around 390 billion yuan, but I still took my suggestion and reduced it by 90 billion yuan. This does not include local subsidies, in fact, many cities can no longer afford subsidies. At the end of last year, a meeting was held in Beijing where the public transportation department discussed the issue of public transportation subsidies. Several cities, including Guangzhou, Shanghai, Wuhan, and I remember Nanjing, were invited to discuss how their new energy vehicles have developed well and how the subsidies are in place. Using a few wealthy cities as representatives to demonstrate that local subsidies are in place and support this subsidy is somewhat superficial.

In fact, many places cannot be filled. So why are there so many subsidies? The main reason is that the subsidies for pure electric buses are high, and the actual premium cars are not low, but the main reason is that the subsidies for pure electric buses are too high. I just read the article given by Director Yan and I agree with it. The subsidy for cars ranging from 6M to 8M is 300000 yuan, plus a local subsidy of 600000 yuan, and the cost is about 400000 yuan, including the battery. This problem is completely reversed. It can be said that in retrospect, I failed elementary school arithmetic. Therefore, without reforming the subsidy policy, electric vehicles cannot develop healthily. After the policy was announced in May last year, on July 8th, the academicians of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the Chinese Academy of Engineering held a general meeting. Nineteen academicians discussed and proposed suggestions to the government together, because academician suggestions are a system. This time, we are more than ten elderly people with an average age of 78. Why talk about age? We have gone through the Great Leap Forward and the People's Communes, and we may not be very familiar with it. The Great Leap Forward caused chaos in society and the economy. We feel that electric vehicles are actually promoting the Great Leap Forward. Therefore, on July 8th, we submitted a proposal to the government titled "Controlling the Total Subsidy for Electric Vehicles and Clarifying Enterprise Development Responsibilities", which can be found online. There are three main suggestions: firstly, the State Council should set an upper limit for the total subsidy for electric vehicles during the 13th Five Year Plan period. The amount of subsidy should be calculated first before use, and the four ministries and commissions should not be allowed to calculate it first;

The second is to clarify the responsibilities of each automobile production enterprise, implement appropriate subsidies, responsibility indicators, reward for exceeding the limit, and promote production with penalties. These four sentences. The third is to continue to strengthen support for the innovative development of electric vehicle technology. I will briefly explain these four sentences: appropriate subsidies, which means continuing to subsidize electric vehicles during the 13th Five Year Plan period, but the amount must be reduced and the decline must be accelerated. The so-called responsibility indicators include rewards for exceeding the quota and penalties to promote production. These three sentences refer to the policy measures in California, which require that car manufacturers must include a certain proportion of zero displacement or partially zero displacement vehicles in the small passenger cars sold in California. It is required that by 2020, there should be 6% zero emission and 3% zero displacement vehicles in the cars sold in California. 5% of the total emissions are zero. Rewards and punishments are based on the number of points. This is a method set by California Americans. At that time, many of our comrades noticed this regulation and felt that this method could be used for reference. This is called 'the stone from another mountain can be used to attack jade', which means that each automobile factory must sell a certain proportion of electric vehicles. How to sell them must meet the requirements of the market and develop electric vehicles according to market-oriented thinking.

Our suggestion was submitted on July 8th and we haven't received a response for about six months. We don't know where the suggestion went. So some comrades say that academicians should give more suggestions, and we also want to, but it's not very useful. We also know that our energy is not high, and it doesn't necessarily mean that we have more energy as we get older. It was not until the subsidy scandal that attention was paid to subsidy policies. Therefore, on February 24th of this year, the State Council held an executive meeting and proposed five decisions, which everyone knows. I am more interested in using rewards instead of subsidies, which is the first point in the article. Regarding batteries, rewards should be used instead of subsidies. Now, the State Council executive meeting has decided how to implement it and is discussing a plan. This plan is quite difficult to come up with, and opinions are not easy to unify. In fact, opinions are not easy to unify. Firstly, there is disagreement. It is said that there are three plans submitted to the leadership for finalization, which may not be accurate because three of them are used as references when submitting to the leadership for finalization, but there are indeed three plans compared.

I think we should follow the spirit of the State Council Executive Meeting, which mentions the importance of adhering to market-oriented and innovation driven approaches. How to adhere to market-oriented approaches, how to implement rewards instead of subsidies, and how to implement them are key issues in the new subsidy system. This is not something I mentioned, but rather two important points in the five articles of the State Council Executive Meeting. Based on these two points, I propose the following ideas:

The first point is that the subsidy fee for each kilowatt of battery must be less than the market price per kilowatt. Nowadays, it is reversed. For example, energy type lithium-ion batteries are priced at around 1700 yuan per kilowatt hour, and now the subsidy is 1800 yuan. In the previous stage, according to the news circulating online, the market price was about 2200 yuan per kilowatt hour, and the subsidy was 2470 yuan. This actually provides a legal opportunity for car enthusiasts to cheat and compensate. The more batteries installed, the more subsidies there will be, and profits can be obtained from the price difference of batteries. So, from the first point, the subsidy amount must be lower than the subsidy, so that you can't rush to install batteries. If you rush to install batteries, it will increase the weight and energy consumption of the car. Installing unnecessary batteries will earn you the subsidy.

The second requirement is that new energy vehicles must account for at least 1% of the cars sold by various automobile companies in 2016 in order to receive subsidies. This limit must be in place, following the approach of California in the United States, where fines will be imposed for cars that are less than 1%. This can encourage companies to actively plan and produce electric vehicles with reasonable prices and marketability. The third point is that plug-in and extended range passenger or commercial vehicles using hybrid power should have a fuel consumption 35% lower than the national standard for conventional fuel vehicles in order to receive subsidies. The original standard circulating online was 35% for buses and 20% for passenger cars. I think it should be unified at 35%, and fuel efficiency must be greater than 35%. Otherwise, plug-in or extended range vehicles cannot receive subsidies because they have not achieved significant fuel saving effects. 35% is actually on par with Japan's Prius, which our country does not provide subsidies for. This is the second issue I mentioned.

The third issue is to make good use of mature batteries and develop market-oriented electric vehicles during the 13th Five Year Plan period. The first point is to make good use of mature batteries and develop extended range electric vehicles. Extended range electric vehicles are pure electric vehicles with built-in generators. This has been mentioned in many of my articles about their advantages, and the biggest feature is that they can save more than 50% of fuel under charging conditions. This is the actual measurement result, but some people do not believe how to achieve it. First, generate electricity from the oil, and then convert it into power. The conversion efficiency of the two times will not be so high. In fact, the problem of two times conversion is not the same. Compared with fuel vehicles, it saves 50% of fuel. There are five key technologies. The first is that the internal combustion engine power of the extended range body is more than half that of ordinary cars only need 0. About 7 liters, the BMW i3 is 0. The 7-liter displacement is actually only 670 milliliters, which saves a lot of fuel with a smaller displacement. The second point is to adjust the internal combustion engine to operate under the optimal energy-saving constant power conditions. By adjusting to this constant power, the efficiency is very high, and both low power and high power must meet the conditions of high fuel efficiency.

When a third ordinary car encounters a red light, the efficiency of the internal combustion engine is zero. When stuck in traffic, the efficiency is very low, which does not happen in this type of car. It can charge the electricity generated by the generator into the battery. The third is the ability to recover energy for deceleration and braking, and the fifth is to use pre charged electricity. If it is not pre charged or not charged midway, it can also save fuel, about less than 5%. Director Yan took this bus to Urumqi, and the average cost of two 12M buses was 16. 3 liters per 100 kilometers, while the two imported cars in the same industry have 32 liters per 100 kilometers. In fact, the two energy conversions are only decimals and do not account for a significant proportion of the overall energy saving. Therefore, this test result is still reliable. By the way, electric vehicles need to undergo two conversions of electricity. The power plant uses coal to generate electricity. This time, heat energy is converted into electrical energy, which is then sent to the battery. The electricity in the battery is sent to the generator to drive the car, which is the second conversion. In fact, the first conversion of the car was not done in a power plant, but in a car, which has a higher efficiency than in a power plant. By the way, the efficiency of this internal combustion engine can be raised to a very high level. By the way, an extended range car can save a lot of fuel without charging. By using more fuel on the car, the fuel savings can be reduced from over 50% to over 40%. The two cars mentioned earlier were part of a Silk Road cultural tour sponsored by the Ministry of Transport. Without charging stations or power plants, an extended range car can save a lot of fuel, which solves a lot of charging problems.

The advantages of extended range vehicles will not be repeated, and you can refer to relevant information. Moreover, extended range electric vehicles are the easiest to transition to no subsidies, which needs to be accounted for because they use fewer batteries, which are equivalent to about 40% of pure electric vehicles, so the cost is relatively low. In addition, the fuel saving rate is high, and the money saved can be used to subsidize the initial cost of buying batteries, which can be recovered in about two years. There needs to be a change in mindset here. We should be willing to subsidize the cost of batteries with fuel-efficient money, rather than always thinking that buying a car is cheap, good, and subsidized, which makes it difficult to sell the car. We should consider how to develop electric vehicles and achieve energy conservation and emission reduction from the perspective of the country's interests. With such a guiding ideology, it is not the idea of some illegal enterprises trying to profit from the country. Extended range vehicles can be vigorously developed in our country. Firstly, buses can use this vehicle well to achieve energy conservation and emission reduction. Secondly, taxis. Yesterday, I heard that there are already 1.35 million vehicles in the country, with a daily mileage of 400 kilometers. One vehicle is equivalent to 10 passenger and family cars.

In Beijing, there are 500 pure electric taxis running in the suburbs, but they cannot run in the city because they cannot meet the requirements. Charging them once is about a hundred kilometers, and they dare not run a little further away. However, there is serious pollution in the city and energy-saving and emission reducing cars are needed. But Beijing insists on using pure electric and hybrid extended range cars, and all of them are rejected. I have written a letter to the Secretary of the Beijing Municipal Party Committee and published articles in newspapers, but there has been no response. Long distance buses have great potential as they consume a lot of fuel. In addition, for passenger cars, our country has promised to reduce their fuel consumption to below 5 liters per 100 kilometers by 2030. Since this promise is made, we must fulfill it. Range extender trucks are a very good way to achieve this. Furthermore, trucks consume a lot of fuel, and our country has begun to pay attention to transport vehicles. Canadian companies have already developed range extender trucks. Last year at a conference, he made an introduction. So trucks are a big fuel saving aspect.

The second point is to develop the cars that the public needs using lead-acid batteries. Everyone may be familiar with what kind of cars the public needs, but now there are different views on lead-acid batteries, thinking that they are old, outdated, and polluting. However, lead-acid batteries now have new technologies, and we need to view them correctly. Nowadays, every car has lead-acid batteries. Did you pollute after getting off the car? The pollution and lead poisoning problems that occur during the production process are caused by poor management and inadequate supervision. In the past two to three years, efforts have been made by government departments and industry associations, resulting in significant improvements. Make the production look new day by day. I have visited several factories, but there are not many workers and they are all automated production equipment. There are still many new technologies, such as alloys of lead and graphene, that have solved the corrosion and softening problems of grid plates. The addition of alloy carbon to lead-acid batteries solves the problem of negative electrode sulfation. Once these two problems are solved, the lifespan of lead-acid batteries will be greatly extended. The actual production recycling has solved the problem of smoke and dust pollution and improved the recycling rate.

On October 14th last month, the National Standardization Management Committee publicly solicited opinions on a batch of national standard projects that had been approved in 2016. Among them, the base conditions for private low-speed electric passenger vehicles have been removed, which means that such vehicles are likely to have technical standards soon and can be produced legally. Therefore, during the 13th Five Year Plan period, lead-acid batteries will be used to develop low-speed vehicles, but lithium-ion batteries can also be used. So the traffic management department should promptly formulate management measures to manage low-speed electric vehicles. In addition, logistics vehicles, special vehicles, sightseeing vehicles, and tourist boats may all develop rapidly, if lead-acid batteries are used well. The third is that all fuel vehicles will implement micro mixing, which will not be further elaborated. Micro mixing refers to the type of start stop.

There is also a subsidy issue here. When it comes to implementing the start stop mode, it costs 1500 yuan, and the micro hybrid mode costs about 3000 yuan. Increasing this amount requires subsidies, and it is not appropriate to subsidize as much as needed, because it can save fuel up to 5% to 8%. These two fuel saving rates can quickly recover the extra 1500 or 3000 yuan. If you can't do something, you have to subsidize it. If you don't subsidize, you can't do it. This bad habit is unacceptable. It will spoil the enterprise and the technical personnel.

3、 Prediction on the Development of New Energy Vehicles during the 13th Five Year Plan Period

Pure electric vehicle batteries have a large usage and high prices. In the 13th Five Year Plan period, the lifespan of pure electric buses may not be very long, and the second battery may not be available, so there may be a peak of "collapse". Last year, inferior or low-quality batteries were in short supply and sold out. In fact, there are a large number of expired batteries on the market, and the probability of accidents is on the rise. After the subsidy reduction, the sales of pure electric buses may experience a decline, which is my prediction. The difficulty of implementing the 35% policy requirement for extended range vehicles is quite high, especially for plug-in models, which require great effort.

In addition, it has two power systems, which are relatively heavy and expensive. It gradually loses its advantage in subsidies and refunds. If it does not improve its level properly, plug-in models may face a crisis. Therefore, I think companies that engage in plug-in models should turn to range extender as soon as possible. There are similarities in technology, so turn early because the earlier, the more proactive they will be. The third one is full hybrid and deep hybrid, which is the Prius just now. In the past, we had to buy components from Prius to assemble, but I don't agree with it. If we can develop it ourselves and break through Prius's patents and have independent property rights, I think this kind of car can save 30% to less than 40% fuel, which is still worth developing.

The CEO of Geely said in a meeting last month that they are working on this car, and I think it is a very good direction because he uses nickel hydrogen batteries, which have good safety. Therefore, I think safety comes first. Batteries should not blindly pursue high specific energy, and pure electric vehicles should not pursue long mileage, as both will increase safety factors. Finally, I would like to make it clear that the current level of batteries determines the development direction of the electric vehicle industry during the 13th Five Year Plan period, rather than pursuing the unattainable so-called high-quality electric vehicles beyond the current level of batteries. Electric vehicles should develop with the level of batteries, so the 13th Five Year Plan is still an old saying of mine: to develop range extended pure electric drive vehicles and micro short-range pure electric vehicles. I have been saying this for more than five years, and I would like to emphasize again that I think this sentence can withstand the test. Thank you all!

Source: Lei Feng Network